ON THE DELPHI PANEL

June 1, 2023

June 1, 2023

Delphi? A city in Greece? Yep. But this isn’t about a city in Greece. It’s about a unique and simple way to solve complex problems. So, this article is for all the readers, not just my people. And please, stay with me on this one.

Let’s start with Delphi. It was a town in ancient Greece and site of a celebrated oracle of the god Apollo and Earth goddess Gaea, situated on the slope of Mount Parnassus, about six miles inland from the Gulf of Corinth and considered by the ancient Greeks to be the center of the earth. According to mythology, Apollo defeated the monstrous serpent Python that guarded Gaea and expelled her from the sanctuary, which he then shared with the god Dionysus. The priests at Delphi developed an elaborate ritual, centered on a chief priestess called Pythia. Her utterances (often with multiple meanings) were regarded as the words of Apollo, and the oracle was consulted by private citizens and public officials alike for solutions to various social, business, personal, military, etc., problems.

The Delphi Panel Approach (DPA) has its origin based – there are numerous versions – on the aforementioned oracle at Delphi in Greece (home of the author’s ancestors) that foretold the future. It is rumored that Alexander the Great violated the sacredness of Delphi by forcing Pythia to relent and provide the answer he desired. Since the middle of the late century, this method has been employed by a host of technical individuals – including your author – to solve complex analytical problems. Your author has modestly referred to it as the Theodore Panel Approach; most others refer to it as the aforementioned Delphi Panel Approach.

Here is how it works. Consider a complex risk calculation. At the simplest level, a group of experts are brought together to discuss a risk valuation in order to reach a consensus as to its most appropriate value. The procedure is iterative, with feedback between iterations and involves five steps once the experts have been chosen. These five steps are as follows:

  1. Select, in isolation, independent estimates of the risk and reasons for justification for the selected value.
  2. Provide the initial results and reasons of each expert to the other experts.
  3. Allow each expert to revise his or her initial estimate and provide the reasoning for any change to the initial value.
  4. Repeat Steps 1 through 3 until a “consensus” value is approached.
  5. Use the average of the final estimates as the best estimate of the risk.

In effect, the experts get locked in separate rooms, providing independent judgements, until some approach to convergence is achieved. Naturally, the experts (panelists) must be willing to share their knowledge, experience, and information with each other if this effort is to be successful. The experts are usually given at least one opportunity to reevaluate their original solution based upon an examination of the other group member’s response. The approach does not lend itself to precise analytical techniques but benefits from subjective judgements on a collective basis; Time and cost can make frequent group meetings unfeasible, but the efficiency of face-to-face meetings can be increased by a supplemental group communication process.

A more recent approach replaces the panel members to a large degree by a computer which has been programmed to carry out the compilation of the panel results. This has the advantage of eliminating the delay caused in summarizing the results of each round from the panel, thereby turning the process into a near real-time communications system.

There are a host of present and past applications. A partial list is provided below.

  1. Generating current and historical data not accurately known or available
  2. Exploring urban and regional planning options
  3. Delineating the pros and cons associated with potential policy options
  4. Developing relationships in complex economic or social phenomena
  5. Obtaining priorities of personal values
  6. Obtaining priorities of social goals
  7. Quantifying budget allocations
  8. Justifying budget allocations
  9. Obtain priorities of military options

They say a picture is worth a thousand words. How about an example of the DPA? Here’s one that might presently be under consideration at the Pentagon. It concerns the monitoring tension(s) between the US and China. The military would like information on the probability China will launch a surprise nuclear attack on us. Obviously, there is no data, no past history, no source, and no references to refer to. What to do??? Hello DPA!

Here is another example. Both China (more recently) and NASA now claim that water is in a relatively pure state on Mars. The question we need answered is (because of potable water problems existing on planet Earth): provide a best estimate of the quantity of water on Mars. Once again, hello DPA!

Can you think of an application that applies to you (the reader)?

To summarize, the Delphi approach may be characterized as a method for structuring a group communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal and solve a complex problem.

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www.theodorenewsletter.com

and

Basketball Coaching 101 @ Facebook

NEXT POSTINGS

JULY 1:                      On Purely, Chaste, Random, Pristine Thoughts XXXII

AUGUST 1:                On a Broadway Musical Play Revisited

SEPTEMBER 1:         On Technical Writing

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ON A HYDROGEN ENERGY ECONOMY: AN INSANE IDEA

February 1, 2023

 February 1, 2023

Sorry folks. This is another one that is technical in nature. Why? I’ve just finished up a book (for John Wiley & Sons) titled Hydrogen Energy: Principles and Applications. Why did I write it? Because I was told it was a hot topic, and that it might sell. I say might because all my books have one thing in common: they simply don’t sell.

In the 1847 novel, The Mysterious Island, Jules Verne amazingly envisioned the use of hydrogen as an energy carrier. “Yes, my friends, I believe that ordinary water will one day be employed as fuel, that hydrogen and oxygen, which constitute it, used singly or together, will furnish an inexhaustible source of heat and light.” Today, Verne’s dream is being taken seriously by many practicing engineers and applied scientists. Hydrogen has the necessary properties and can fulfill the role of an energy carrier that can be derived from either methane or water, but unfortunately, the economics are not there.

Increased stringent regulations and demand for zero-carbon and zero-sulfur fuels has dramatically increased interest in hydrogen as a source of energy. And, hydrogen may well emerge as a very important fuel toward the middle of this century, but your author doesn’t think so. Since hydrogen is not a basic energy resource (except in the sun), it must be supplied by using some other basic energy resource to separate hydrogen from water or other hydrogen-containing chemical compounds (like methane). Unlike carbon-based fuels, hydrogen used directly as a fuel produces only water and no carbon dioxide. Thus, hydrogen fuel is viewed by environmentalists and politicians as an ecologically friendly fuel.

Today, our nation’s energy requirements for producing electricity and heat are primarily derived from fossil fuels (natural gas, oil, and coal) which when burned, produce carbon dioxide, a supposed pollutant, that can impact the climate. This concern with carbon dioxide has created a free-for-all for the technical community in its quest to replace the traditional fossil fuels. Industry is recklessly (from a financial perspective) pouring money into not only research and development (R&D) but also advertising that this as an energy solution. But, ultimately,  the basic laws of engineering and science are untouchable and non-negotiable.

Here’s the insanity with what is going on. Pure hydrogen does not occur naturally; it takes energy to manufacture it. Once manufactured, it is an energy carrier (i.e., a storer for energy first generated by other means). Energy is required to isolate the chemical bound hydrogen. If a fossil fuel is employed for this purpose, it would require depleting an irreplaceable natural resource and produce carbon dioxide. Thus, the production of hydrogen depends on the availability of a source of energy to assist the process. After the hydrogen is produced, there are companion costs associated with storage, transmission, and conversion, which is then followed by its use. If water (H2O) is employed as the source of hydrogen, a significant amount of energy must be employed to initially separate the hydrogen from the oxygen. High energy “losses” occur no matter what the source of hydrogen. Therefore, producing hydrogen by any means simply does not make sense. As I said in the title of this article – it’s INSANE!!

What about a solution to the energy problem? Your author is a believer in geothermal (preferably) and nuclear energy. Geothermal energy refers to the heat stored in the Earth’s crust, i.e., the Earth is hotter the deeper one drills below the surface…and, this energy is limitless. Nuclear energy – unfortunately, much maligned by the uneducated and environmentalists – is energy obtained from the nucleus of an atom where fission energy is liberated when an atom is split. This energy corresponds to the loss in mass that occurs because the fragments are less than the mass of the original form. Nuclear fusion occurs when two or more atoms are fused into one larger one without long-lived radioactive waste. Here’s more on fusion – Livermore Labs announced on December 12 that they produced a nuclear fusion reaction that resulted in a net energy gain … a monumental breakthrough that is certain to impact all other applications involving energy.

The present fossil fuel energy economy must be replaced. But it has to be done gradually over several decades, and hopefully, with one of the two above sources of energy.

In conclusion, the implementation of a hydrogen energy economy by the government would be an economic disaster and negatively impact capitalism. The many advantages of traditional and other forms of energy are not well understood by the general public, and mercilessly demeaned, particularly by those (politicians are at the top of the list) for their own agenda.

Visit the author at:

www.theodorenewsletter.com

and

Basketball Coaching 101 @ Facebook

NEXT POSTINGS

MARCH 1:                 ZZZABUU VII

APRIL 1:                    On Great Eats VII

MAY 1:                      On Purely Random, Pristine Thoughts XXVII

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ON POTABLE WATER / DESALINATION

December 1, 2022

December 1, 2022

The number one global environmental problem carries the label of potable water. I believe it is or will soon be the number one global problem. At a minimum, it will achieve greater significance in the years ahead this century.

The world’s total water supply is enormous compared with the presently conceivable needs of man, yet there is a growing potable water concern. Approximately 98% of the 320 million cubic miles of water in the Earth’s crust is salty and useful neither for irrigation by present techniques nor for the majority of man’s other needs. Precipitation provides many times the world’s annual water needs, but fresh water supplies vary widely not only over the Earth’s surface but also from time to time in a given region. This accounts for what has come to be referred to as the “water problem.”

An obvious way to increase water availability is to recover fresh potable water through desalination from seawater or from some other source. Your favorite author has recently and is currently investigating new processes for producing potable water. This month’s article introduces the reader to the desalination process and reviews the essence of two recent potable water patents.

In the overall desalination process, feed water is introduced to the desalination unit where – following the application of some form of energy – it is separated into (relatively) pure potable water, and a more concentrated brine solution.

Of all of the desalination processes, the only ones which are known to currently be economically feasible are: (1) evaporation, (2) reverse osmosis, and (3) crystallization (freezing). At present, the economic feasibility of all other processes is considered doubtful. Each of these three processes is briefly discussed below.

The oldest and best developed process for saline water conversion is the evaporation method. In many desalination technologies in use or being developed today, desalination began using evaporative processes. These evaporative desalination techniques were recognized over 2,000 years ago when Aristotle wrote in 320 B.C., “saltwater, when it turns into vapor, becomes sweet and the vapor does not form saltwater again when it condenses.” It remains one of the major methods today for commercial production of fresh water from seawater. In principle, seawater is boiled in an evaporator by passing hot steam through an enclosure (a steam chest) where the steam condenses on the inside of the tubes of the chest and is usually returned to a boiler. The vapors rising form the seawater feed are cooled in a condenser and thus converted into pure liquid water which is collected in a storage vessel. The accompanying resulting concentrated brine solution is continuously or intermittently withdrawn from the evaporator.

Electrodialysis was the membrane separation process employed for desalination a century ago. However, in recent years, reverse osmosis (RO) has displaced electrodialysis as the primary membrane separation desalination process, leaving the latter as the choice for medical kidney applications. An RO system consists of an intake, a pre-treatment component, a high-pressure pump, a membrane apparatus, remineralization, and pH adjustment components, as well as a disinfection step. Generally, a pressure of about 1.7 to 6.9 MPa is required to overcome membrane resistance to flow. The aforementioned pressure must be applied to the solvent or water and the membrane must be relatively impermeable to the solute or order to make water pass through the membrane in the desired direction (i.e., away from a concentrated salt solution). The membranes used for RO processes are characterized by a high degree of semi-permeability. These membranes may be configured into a variety of geometries for system operation, including: plate and frame, tubular, spiral wound (composite), and hollow fiber.

Crystallization processes were also employed over 2,000 years ago. Today, these processes are important industrial operations that are often employed in the preparation of a pure product, e.g., sugar, coffee, etc. A crystal usually separates out as a substance of specific composition from a solution of varying composition. There are several different ways that crystallization can occur. The three most often encountered in practice are

  1. Cooling.
  2. Evaporation.
  3. Cooling and evaporation.

Process 1 is the most commonly employed.

World-wide development of potable water techniques in the last half century has been driven out of necessity due both to water scarcity and population growth. The private sector has primarily led the investment in research and development since water has begun to be seen not as a commodity, but as a product to be sold at a profit. With this in mind, your favorite author recently developed two processes that are presently utility patents. The two processes are described below.

1. The WOFF (Water Obtained from Fossil Fuels) Process, Patent #17,579,045:

A process of producing potable water by combining a hydrocarbon-containing fossil fuel with oxygen in a combustion device such as a utility boiler or home heating to produce a flue gas of water vapor and carbon dioxide, and condensing the water vapor in the flue gas to yield potable water. The combustion device can produce heat or electricity. The water vapor can be condensed with one or more heat exchange devices. The source of oxygen can be air, pure oxygen, or nitrogen reduced air. The source of oxygen can be humidified, such as with a non-potable water source , or non-potable water can be added to the flue gas. The carbon dioxide and / or nitrogen in the flue gas can be reduced or removed before the condensation step(s). The pressure of the flue gas can be increased prior to condensation of the water vapor. Natural gas is the preferred fuel.

2. The THEOGEO Process (Theodore Geothermal) Patent #17,736,235:

A system and method for converting non-potable water into potable water employing  Geothermal energy. Non-potable water, such as seawater or non-potable ground water, and the like, is fed down a conduit into a deep underground enclosure. Due to its extreme depth, the enclosure is geothermally heated above the boiling point of water at the pressure within the enclosure. The water boils and creates water vapor. The water vapor rises and can be drawn up through a vapor conduit to the surface. The water vapor can be condensed (and further purified, if necessary) into potable water. The steam can be used in a hybrid system where it is condensed after being used for heating purposes or the production of electricity.

Your thoughts on the two patents would be appreciated. I can tell you that no individual or business entity has yet expressed an interest in either patent, both of which have cost me a pretty penny. HELP!

Visit the author at:

www.theodorenewsletter.com

or

Basketball Coaching 101 @ Facebook

NEXT POSTINGS

JANUARY 1:             On the Ultimate Quiz VII

FEBRUARY 1:          The 2022-23 College Basketball Season

MARCH 1:                 On That First Job

APRIL 1:                    On Purely Random, Pristine Thoughts XXVII

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ON OHI DAY VI

November 1, 2022

November 1, 2022

This one may be primarily for those readers who refer to themselves as “Greek” or “Greek-American.”

Greeks first started to immigrate to the United State4s in large numbers soon after 1900. The main characteristics of these travelers were their high character, belief in God (most are Greek Orthodox), and their industriousness. My parents fit that description. They successfully managed to pass their traits onto their children…and I believe it applies to me. Today, the children and grandchildren (and great grandchildren?) of the immigrants are our leaders in business, industry, education, and government. The American Hellenic Educational Progressive Association (AHEPA) reported 13 years ago that Greek Americans rank 2nd in per capita wealth (Jews are first) and first in earned doctorates (Jews are 2nd). Truly a success story that all Americans can be proud of.

My parents emigrated from the Peloponnese region of Greece. It is a legendary place, especially from an historical perspective. This is the peninsula where ancient Sparta was located. Paris of Troy escaped here when he and Helen eloped. The Peloponnese is also where some of the most memorable of Greece’s locations can be found, including ancient Olympia, the site of the original Olympic games, and many others.

On to the main theme of this article. It’s been 3 years since I penned my fifth article on the OHI Day. This is a special day in Greek history as it regards Greece’s heroic involvement in WWII.

My ancestors have a long history of battling and suffering with evil elements and opponents. Unfortunately, history repeated itself in 1939. The 83rd anniversary of the resistance of fascist forces by the Greek Armed Forces was recently celebrated several days ago on October 28. The day came and went without a whimper here in the United States. OHI (an emphatic no in Greek!) was Prime Minister Metaxas’s response to Hitler’s order to peacefully surrender. What followed Metaxas’s response was 219 days of fierce battles. That in turn was followed by intense guerrilla warfare that resulted in a brutal occupation that included executions, sufferings, famine, and severe inflation; 10% of the population died. The rest is now history for some people and all Greeks.

Here are comments from two of the major players immediately following this war.

Winston Churchill: “The word heroism, I’m afraid, does not reflect in the least the Hellenes’ acts of self-sacrifice that were the defining factors of the victorious ending of all the nations’ common struggle during the 2nd WW for human freedom and dignity. If it were not for the bravery of the Hellenes and their courageous hearts, the ending of the 2nd WW would not have been clear.”

Franklin Roosevelt: “When the entire world had lost all hope, the Hellenic people dared to doubt the German monster’s invincibility, fighting back with the proud spirit of freedom. The heroic struggle of the Hellenic people against the German hurricane filled the American hearts with enthusiasm and won their sympathy.”

I dug this from my OHI files – a 11/21/1940 Newsday article.

“In a smashing drive at dawn, Grecian mountain fighters stormed the Italian defenses outside Koritza, drove the fascists back into the town and took over the new line from which they fired into the town…Despite desperate Italian efforts to stem the Grecian advances by flying in fresh reinforcements, Greek shock troops reportedly smashed through the Italian lines on the southern front, making another wide hole near Metyoni…Military observers here are of the opinion that if the present Greek progress continues, the Albanian port of Santa Quaranti itself will be threatened.”

Another reminder of the special day was a paper submitted by our 13-year-old grandson, 3 years ago, for his English class. It was titled VACHOS 1,5. Vachos is a small essentially deserted town build on a rocky terrain halfway up a mountain with no apparent means of sustenance itself. Vachos is located in Mani – the middle member of the Peloponnese peninsula – surrounded by the Mediterranean Sea on the south, the Ionean Sea on the west, and the Aegean Sea on the east, …Here was a part of Elias’s passage… “We had started our journey in Athens, and we were now in Mani, the region of the Peloponnese my great grandfather emigrated from…Excited and curious, my whole family had all been waiting for this part of the trip. As we drove into the hills, the sea disappeared. A sign ‘VACHOS 1,5’ told us to turn right and drive 1.5 kilometers to Vachos…It amazed me that my ancestors left this town for more opportunities in America, but a basketball hoop had traveled in the opposite direction…Nestled into a steep hills, the house was made of stone, most of it still intact, with a dilapidated clay roof. Trees obscured the view of the house so we walked down the hill to see it from another angle. Long, prickly brush scratched against my legs as I surveyed the place my Spartan family had lived in a century before…We wandered into the town cemetery, where we were greeted by marble stones with engravings, vibrant flowers, and food and drinks placed on graves. I share blood with all of these people…”

I talk to Elias nearly every night. He keeps asking me about revisiting Greece. Unfortunately, that kind of travel is no longer in the works for me. But we can always dream. Now a senior, I can’t wait for a follow-up paper, perhaps as a senior project.

Finally, I want the readers to know that as a first-generation Greek-American, I never forget the value of growing up in a country – The U S of A – whose economy is based on capitalism and is both democratic and free.

NEXT POSTINGS:

DECEMBER 1:          On Potable Water / Desalination

JANUARY 1:             On the Ultimate Quiz VII

FEBRUARY 1:          On Zzzabbuu VI

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www.theodorenewsletter.com

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ON INFLATION

September 1, 2022

September 1, 2022

Inflation! You have been hearing a lot about it since President Biden took office. Here is my take on this controversial issue.

Let’s start with what Webster has to say on inflation: “increase in the amount of money in circulation, resulting in a relatively sharp and sudden fall in its value and rise in prices.” The opposite is deflation, which is defined as “a lessening of the amount of money in circulation resulting in a relatively sharp and sudden rise in its value and fall in prices.” Thus, inflation and deflation are terms used to describe a decline or an increase, respectively, in the value of money and in relation to the goods and services it will buy.

Since inflation is the continuous rise in prices in goods and services, these price increases erode the purchasing power of money and other financial assets with fixed values, creating serious economic concerns. Repeated price increases were historically unique and often directly linked to wars, poor harvests, political upheavals, etc.

Effects? Inflation initially increases  business profits, as wages and other costs lag behind price increases, leading to more capital investment and payments of dividends and interest. Despite this temporary gain, however, inflation eventually disrupts normal economic activities, particularly if the pace fluctuates. Interest rates typically include the anticipated pace of inflation that increases business costs, discourages consumer spending, and depresses the value of stocks and bonds Higher mortgage interest rates and rapidly escalating prices for homes discourage housing construction. As noted above, inflation also erodes the real purchasing power of current incomes and accumulated financial assets, resulting in reduced consumption, particularly if consumers are unwilling to draw on their savings and increase personal debts. Business investment suffers as overall economic activity declines, and profits are restricted as employees will demand immediate relief through some form of automatic cost-of-living escalator clauses. It is fair to say that inflation is a major element in the prevailing pattern of booms and recessions that cause unwanted price and employment distortions and widespread economic uncertainty.

Impact? The impact of inflation on individuals depends on many variables. People with relatively fixed incomes, particularly those in the low-income groups, suffer during accelerating inflation, while those with flexible bargaining power may keep pace with or even benefit from inflation. Those dependent on assets with fixed nominal values, such as savings accounts and pensions, suffer erosion of real wealth. Borrowers usually benefit while lenders suffer, because all forms of loans are paid with money that loses purchasing power over time and interest rates tend to lag behind the average rate of price increases.

Stabilization measures? I have no answer since I am not an economist. However, it seems to me that any serious anti-inflation effort will be difficult.

I close with these thoughts:

  1. Politicians like to spend money because it gets them votes and power. They spend more than what is raised by taxes so they have to seek money elsewhere. They turn to printing money and / or borrowing money. Money is borrowed from government trust funds such as Social Security and Medicare and from the open market via Treasury Bonds. This assumes that the government can always borrow money without consequences. It also assumes that interest payments can also be borrowed. Elected officials know they must be right because this scheme has worked out pretty well since 1964 with the start of the Great Society and the War on Poverty. But now,  it appears that a day of reckoning may be fast approaching.
  2. The question of money always arises in inflation discussions. A nation can only create money of value when there are businesses creating useful goods at a profit. With these conditions, it is then a function of government to print money to facilitate commerce. As businesses prosper and trade increases, then governments, of necessity, print more money, However, if government prints money faster than the increase in business activity, then excess money will begin to chase the supply of goods available and prices will rise. Enter inflation.
  3. Our nation is blessed with an economic system which is very productive and efficient. It is able to take materials of low cost and make them into very valuable products. (The productivity of workers today is orders of magnitude higher than in those days of handcrafting.) As a result, workers are paid salaries that allow them to save money. These savings are a result of goods that have been made. If businesses borrow savings, it is usually to create more production and more money of value, and that is good. However, government spending rarely creates useful goods at a profit which would result in new money creation. In fact, the opposite happens. Most government spending destroys the value of money since government spending can result in the earlier statement of too much money chasing after a limited supply of goods. Once again, enter inflation.
  4. Treasury debt now exceeds 30 billion dollars and is still rising rapidly. Ouch!!

Note: Thanks are due to fellow Cooperite, colleague and friend Dick Graven for providing some of his thoughts on this controversial topic.

NEXT POSTINGS

OCTOBER 1:             On Water

NOVEMBER 1:         The OHI Day V

DECEMBER 1:          On My Two Patents

 

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ON ONE LINERS: BIDEN’S ADMINISTRATION

March 1, 2022

March 1, 2022

It’s been over a year since an article of a political nature. Here are 30 one (or occasionally two) liners drawn from my Biden file. For some of you: please don’t get upset – these are only my opinions.

A comment on history repeating itself before providing my notes. In 1939, it was Hitler and Chamberlain on Poland with Churchill waiting in the wings. Today, its Putin and Biden on Ukraine with Trump waiting in the wings. Perhaps Putin and Biden should hold hands and visit WWII cemeteries in Europe.

  1. Two impeachments and now a senate trial on the events of January 6, 2021; these have proven to be nothing but bad theater in a useless attempt once again to defame and insult President Trump.
  2. Polls clearly indicate that Biden continues to reject the desires of the voters and has failed miserably on near all of his actions.
  3. Our Constitution might be somewhat flawed but it is still the most ideal way to govern a complex entity such as our country.
  4. The democratic party is infested with career bureaucrats who are cunning and corrupt lawyers / politicians.
  5. The current immigration policy of the democrats will get them voters, which will get them the desired vote, which will get them money and power. In the meantime, they are violating federal law, endangering lives (health and crime), and negatively impacting our economy.
  6. Trump has many faults, but he is devoted to our nation and to its defense; his original mission remains unfulfilled.
  7. The enemy continues to rant about Trump’s lies. I’ve listened to all his speeches and am still trying to figure out what the lies are.
  8. Trump delivered on virtually all his promises prior to his election – particularly providing 3 vaccines and 2 antibodies. And, what about historic peace in the Middle East, Korea, China, etc.
  9. I am really mad at our elected officials. Why aren’t they demanding Biden sever all relations with Russia and move back to Trump’s state of energy independence? Don’t they understand that there is a war and people are dying?!
  10. Here is what we are currently experiencing under the Biden Administration: shootings, murders, vandalism, riots, silencing opposition, defunding police, open borders, pacifying our enemies, inflation, etc. Add to these attempts to abolish the Electoral College, pack the Supreme Court, attempting statehood for Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C., terminate the filibuster, etc.; perhaps ever worse is their current education policy of defaming our country and also really dividing our country. How about the recent Durham revelations that Trump was indeed spied on.
  11. Obama has blood on his hands with what transpired with ISIS. Now Biden has blood on his hands because of Ukraine.
  12. Biden and his administration claim that government spending does not cost the taxpayer. Is it creative mathematics or a complete fraud?
  13. The fact that 38% of the electorate think that Biden is doing a good job is a tribute to how dumb, indifferent, and misinformed they are.
  14. Biden has unquestionably emboldened our enemies: Taiwan and Ukraine are prime examples.
  15. What the hell is Biden doing? Surrendered Afghanistan, failed our citizens and allies remaining there, and left military equipment for our enemies (that could now be used in the Ukraine). Can anyone be that dumb?
  16. Biden appears more concerned on attacking individuals such as your favorite author than in protecting us from our enemies; I’m also tired of him, his cohorts, and the news media calling me a racist, un-American, a Nazi, a hater, etc.
  17. FOX News, better than anyone, has proven that media bias exists with their videotapes of CNN, CNBC, etc.
  18. The New York Times news reporting is disgusting; just read their headlines every day.
  19. Biden and his family are probably the most corrupt family in American history; the recent news about Pelosi puts her in second place. Virtually every elected official in Washington becomes a multi-millionaire; thank you Donald for opening my eyes to this fact.
  20. Biden’s entire cabinet is made up of career bureaucrats; none have ever worked for a living. And, no surprise, there are no republicans. How’s this for his promise to put forth a competent and diverse cabinet.
  21. Pelosi labeled Biden as “just perfect.” Really?? Wow!! She obviously is lying and she must know it.
  22. Biden called Trump’s COVID testing a travesty, then promised free testing without an ability to provide testing. Another failure.
  23. Perhaps we should pray for Biden because next comes Harris (what a disaster) and Pelosi (is there a more evil person?).
  24. Any chance Pelosi will provide her tax returns given what was recently made public? And what about Hunter Biden’s returns?
  25. The corrupt media is the greatest concern. Many citizens are either misinformed or not informed. Prior to Biden’s election, 30% of democratic voters did not know of Hunter’s activities and 25% of those said they would not have voted for Biden if they knew.
  26. Our nation definitely needs Trump. Hopefully, he will pick a woman for a running mate to pick up some of his haters (perhaps it would be best if he didn’t run with the raw hatred some have for him).
  27. This COVID-19 pandemic came about primarily because of the incompetence and inaction of both the CDC and WHO. Fauci the Fraud, who heads up the CDC’s 50-billion-dollar program, has caused the death of many Americans.
  28. Trump was transparent from the day he entered the race, always responding to a hostile media… and, on a daily basis. Biden? He’s been AWOL since Day 1 and refuses to answer questions.
  29. Regarding January 6, nearly 1,000 were arrested but only a handful were guilty of wrong doing. This demonstration was peaceful compared to some earlier fanatical democratic demonstrations.
  30. Finally, and thankfully, it appears most (but not all) of our elected Republicans have united.

I really believe that Trump looked after those – such as your author – who have no voice. But we may still survive. When will I return with another one of these? Who knows?

Visit the author at:

www.theodorenewsletter.com

or

Basketball Coaching 101 (Facebook)

NEXT POSTINGS

APRIL 1:        On the Ultimate Quiz VI (replacing Hofstra’s season)

MAY 1:          On the EWSD School Tax Vote

JUNE 1:          On ZZZabuu VI

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Here are this month’s three defensive suggestions from the upcoming second edition of my “BASKETBALL COACHING 101” book.

  1. Players should not view defense as a time to rest and relax. Practice time on defense should be as important as time on offense.
  2. If an opposing team’s offense is run by their playmaker, the defense should attempt to prevent him from getting the ball.
  3. Defensive drills should include double and perhaps triple-teaming an offensive player.

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ON ZZZABUU IV

March 31, 2021

April 1, 2021

Zzzabuu is his name. He arrived earlier in 2003 from the planet Zzokki in a faraway galaxy, having been dispatched to Earth on a fact-finding trip involving politicians. Zzzabuu had been selected once again by The Superiors in 2021 because of his great intellect, analytical mind, and his love of gambling.

On reaching Earth, Zzzabuu set out immediately to accomplish his specific assignment: to determine details (both pros and cons) of gambling investment opportunities on Plant Earth. As per instructions from the Superiors, Zzzabuu met with an outspoken chemical engineering professor (who shall remain nameless); he had earlier published a book titled, “Probability and Statistics for Environmental Engineers and Scientists”. Part of the material in the well-received text addressed games of chance, including dice, cards, football pools, Lotto, etc. The professor proved an invaluable source of information despite being dubbed “The Chemist” by his friends and colleagues because of an uncanny ability to turn their money entrusted to him into horse manure.

Several weeks of intensive study followed. After obtaining all the facts, Zzzabuu prepared his report in a manner that any Zzokkian could relate to and understand. The executive summary in his z-mail to The Superiors follows.

“The financial alternatives of any game of chance can often be measured by the cost of the game / investment. This cost effectively represents what the gambling industry charges the investor for the opportunity to gamble. For example, a 5% cost figure could represent the “takeout”, that is, a measure of what percentage – on average – of the investment that the gambler automatically pays for this opportunity. Alternatively, it could represent what percent – on average – one would expect to lose with a particular game of chance. This information follows for a host of gambling options.

            Lotto                           50%

            Pari-mutuel Racing* 16%

            Real Estate Industry* 5%

            Sports Wagering*       5%

            Roulette                      3.5%

            Slots                            1-5%

            Dice                            0.5%

            Blackjack (“21”)*      0.1%

            Securities Industry*   0%

Each Zzokkian should note that the five activities with asterisks are not truly games of chance since each individual can control his / her own destiny, i.e., chance of winning, by intelligent gaming decisions. For example, with thoroughbred pari-mutuel wagering, the ability to select winning horses could negate the 16% takeout and result in a profit. The same applies with investing in securities via the Internet where the only cost could be as low as $6 for a multi-million dollar investment.

Most of the inhabitants on Planet Earth, including the nefarious professor, delve into most – if not all – of the above games of chance. Obviously, Lotto is a game for those individuals whose IQ is in the 2-digit range and in need of a grade school refresher course in arithmetic. The game of blackjack offers some interesting possibilities since one may employ a “counting” technique that actually could convert the odds to slightly favor the gambler. Finally, the real estate and securities industries have a track record that, on average, have produced significant profitable returns over the years to investors.

The Superiors need to realize that the aforementioned term probability must be an integral part of any gambling study or analysis. Webster defines probability as ‘the number of times something will probably occur over the range of possible occurrences, expressed as a ratio.’ For me, probability can be interpreted subjectively as a measure of degree of belief, on a fractional scale from 0 to 1 or 0 to 100 on a percent basis, that an “event” occurs. This interpretation is frequently used in ordinary conversation. For example, if someone says, “The probability that I will go to the movies tonight is 90%”, then 90% is a measure of the person’s belief that he or she will get to the movies. This interpretation is also used when, in the absence of concrete data needed to estimate an unknown probability on a basis of observed concrete data, information and / or facts, the personal opinion of an expert is sought. For example, an expert might be asked to estimate the probability that a stock will double in the next six months; the estimate would be based on the expert’s familiarity with the stock market.

The Superiors and / or Earthlings may obtain additional details on all of the above games of chance at no charge by calling (516) 742-8939.”

In order to accommodate some of my readers, future articles – Zzzabuu V, VI, VII, and VIII – addressing pari-mutuel wagering, stock market investing, casino gambling, and sport book betting, respectively – will provide specific details on each of these four topics. I will provide not only pertinent odds but also helpful hints in these write-ups. And yes, I am significantly involved in all four pursuits.

Visit the author at:

www.theodorenewsletter.com

or

Basketball Coaching 101 (Facebook)

NEXT POSTINGS

MAY 1:           On Hofstra’s 2020-21 Basketball Season / EWSD Budget Vote

JUNE 1:          On Great Eats VI

JULY 1:          On Technical Writing

AUGUST 1:    Zzzabuu V

———————————————————————————————————————

Here are this month’s three defensive suggestions from the upcoming second edition of my “BASKETBALL COACHING 101” book.

  1. If trailing with more than a minute to go, attempt (perhaps via a timeout) to prevent any delays in inbounding the ball by your opponents.
  2. Practice various defenses when your opponents are in-bounding the ball from various locations on the court.
  3. Finally, never forget that defense is 50% of the game. Coaches, are you reading this? Players, are you reading this? DEFENSE IS AS IMPORTANT AS OFFENSE. You can never lose a game if your five starters have the capabilities of shutting down their opponent. However, you can lose a game even if your 5 starters have the capability of scoring at will.

Leave a Comment » | East Williston, Economics, Horseracing, Sports | Permalink
Posted by The Theodore Newsletter

ON THE THEODORE COVID-19 VACCINE DISTRIBUTION PLAN

February 28, 2021

March 1, 2021

The distribution process for the COVID-19 vaccine is obviously significantly flawed. Who is at fault? It depends on who you talk to but it really doesn’t matter. For sure, there has to be a better way of handling this situation. Here are my comments followed by my vaccine distribution approach.

Three questions first need to be addressed before proceeding.

  1. How should the number and timing of vaccines be maximized?
  2. Who should decide who gets the vaccine and when?
  3. How should the vaccines for the recipients be distributed?

The answer to question (1) is simply this: the federal government should subsidize the creation / discovery and preparation of the vaccine supplies with generous bonuses for timely deliveries. This apparently did occur. Anyone or any group – other than the CDC or WHO – should determine the answer to questions (2). Why not me, even though there must be a host of others who could better provide an answer. Obviously (3) is the key question. Both questions (2) and (3) should be dynamic and vary with individual states, counties, locales, etc. In any event, here is what I propose.

The prioritization (high priority to low priority) is presented in terms of 6 categories. Categories include:

  1. Healthcare workers
  2. Infrastructure personnel (police, firefighters, etc.)
  3. Senior citizens
  4. High risk groups
  5. Children
  6. Others not included in A-D

My prioritization follows. Note that there are 20 groups.

A1.   Employed healthcare workers

B1.   Policemen and firefighters

C1.   Citizens 90 and over

D1.   Citizens with cancer, lung, liver, or heart disease

C2.   Citizens 85-90

A2.   Unemployed healthcare workers

C3    Citizens 75-85

D2.   Citizens with flu or pneumonia

C4.   Employed citizens 60-75

D3    Citizens with any past lung, liver, or heart disease

C5.   Parents with 3 or more children

D2.   Other employed infrastructure personnel

D3.   Other unemployed infrastructure personnel

E1.    Children under 1

C6.   Employed citizens 18-60

C7.   Unemployed citizens 18-60

E2.    Children 1-18

F1.    Used car salesmen, realtors, and dentists

F2.    Lawyers, elected officials, and government personnel

F3.    School teachers, college professors, and veterinarians

I believe the first four groups (A1-D1) in any order – should receive the vaccine first. The last three groups should receive the least consideration.

The assignment of any of the priorities above is not based on any solid scientific or medical data and information. It is simply a gut feeling drawn from my limited experience. As is the case with this sort of judgement, this prioritization will vary with both the individual and time. But for me, the key would be to have as little impact as possible from the government and bureaucrats.

Visit the author at:

www.theodorenewsletter.com

or

Basketball Coaching 101 (Facebook)

NEXT POSTINGS:

APRIL 1:                     On Hofstra’s 2020-21 Basketball Season

MAY 1:                       On Great Eats VI

JUNE 1:                      On Technical Writing

———————————————————————————————————————

Here are this month’s three offensive suggestions from the upcoming second edition of my “BASKETBALL COACHING 101” book.

  1. Practice inbounding the ball at various locations on the court when the opposing team is pressing.
  2. The player nearest to the ball should take it out immediately after a basket or foul shot and pass it to the first open man.
  3. Do not leave the foul line after the first of two (or three) free throws, and do not slap / shake the hand of a fellow teammate.

Leave a Comment » | Economics, Education, Health, Politics, Uncategorized | Permalink
Posted by The Theodore Newsletter

THE ULTIMATE QUIZ IV

February 1, 2021

February 1, 2021

As indicated in III, this has become one of my favorites. But, this one is a little different. It is solely political in nature and each statement to follow requires either a true or false answer. And, there is no correct answer … it is basically your call. The 40 comments to follow concern events/ actions that occurred during the 2016-2020 time period. You are asked to provide a true or false response.

I personally will not take a position on the results/grade of your true – false test. But, based on your number of true answers, I feel that you would be classified in one of the five categories:

  1. 0-8:     a staunch liberal
  2. 9-16:   a liberal
  3. 17-24: a moderate
  4. 25-32: a conservative
  5. 33-40: a staunch conservative
  1. The stock market increased at a near exponential rate, no doubt due to a turnaround robust economy, commitments to job creation, and a decline in poverty levels.
  2. Our nation is now classified as energy independent (remember the price of gasoline is now $2.00/gal)
  3. Contrary to earlier predictions, there was a return of manufacturing jobs.
  4. Black colleges and universities received an unprecedented increase in financial aid from the Federal government.
  5. The U.S. military prowess increased dramatically.
  6. The air, water, and land (soil) was never cleaner.
  7. Despite a departure from the Paris Peace Accord, CO2 emissions decreased below expectations.
  8. NAFTA was dissolved and replaced.
  9. New rules were put in place to stop the exploitation by China.
  10. Built nearly all the Southern wall and stopped illegal immigration across the Southern border.
  11. The majority of the public came to realize that the media was corrupt, self-serving, and un-American.
  12. The Washington establishment – consisting primarily of career bureaucrats, often referred to as “The Swamp” – was corrupt, self-serving, and un-American.
  13. Stopped the ISIS killing and torture.
  14. Several elements of the Obama Health Care Act were eliminated.
  15. Reduced the North Korean threat.
  16. For many citizens, there was a return of pride and love of country.
  17. Contrary to earlier predictions, our presence in foreign wars was significantly reduced.
  18. Abuses in veterans’ hospitals were significantly reduced.
  19. The COVID-19 pandemic was responsibly addressed medically and economically.
  20. Delivered ventilators and hospital beds immediately to an ill-prepared NYS.
  21. Delivered the COVID-19 vaccine in 7 ½ months, not 5-10 years (as predicted).
  22. Taxes were lowered for the middle class.
  23. The President was impeached based on a telephone conversation with a third-world country that was interpreted in a questionable manner.
  24. Unemployment levels for Blacks reached an all-time low.
  25. The Food Stamp Program was significantly reduced.
  26. Per capita wealth increased at a near exponential rate.
  27. Property values increased at a near exponential rate.
  28. Many companies, after moving abroad earlier, returned home.
  29. The MS-13 presence in our country was reduced.
  30. Eliminated the presence of ISIS in the Middle East.
  31. Our soldiers are now coming home.
  32. The Iranian threat was significantly reduced.
  33. Contrary to earlier concerns, no nuclear wars were initiated.
  34. The US was the first country to stop to and fro travel with China.
  35. Unemployment levels for Hispanics reached an all-time low.
  36. Unemployment levels for Asians reached an all-time low.
  37. Unemployment levels for women reached an all-time low.
  38. Contrary to failed promises from a host of past presidents, the US Embassy in Israel was relocated to Jerusalem.
  39. The economy and newly created jobs grew at an unprecedented and exponential rate.
  40. Contrary to the prediction of nearly all the bureaucrats, peace treaties were signed between Israel and several Arab nations.

How many true answers did you come up with? Where do you think Trump would be classified? Biden? Pelosi? Cuomo? Pence?

Note: For some of my fans, I recently co-authored an Amazon book ($7.99) titled “Virus Contacts”. The lead author is Ann Marie Flynn.

Visit the author at:

www.theodorenewsletter.com

or

Basketball Coaching 101 (Facebook)

NEXT POSTINGS:

MARCH 1:                 On Technical Writing

APRIL 1:                     On Great Eats VI

MAY 1:                       On Hofstra’s 2020-21 Basketball Season

———————————————————————————————————————

Here are this month’s three defensive suggestions from the upcoming second edition of my “BASKETBALL COACHING 101” book.

  1. Every shot, particularly of an “outside” variety, should be contested — unless you are the size (5’ 6”) of the author.
  2. Every attempt should be made to exploit your team’s defensive capabilities against the opponent’s offensive weaknesses.
  3. If fouls committed by your team are low relative to your opponent, substitute for your star or key players – assuming they need a breather anyway – since the officials are more prone to call “touch” fouls on your team.

Leave a Comment » | Basketball, East Williston, Economics, Education, Politics, Uncategorized | Permalink
Posted by The Theodore Newsletter

ON PURELY CHASTE, PRISTINE, AND RANDOM THOUGHTS XXX

January 1, 2021

January 1, 2021

Here we go again, but, given the present political climate, this one is strictly devoted to political thoughts. I hope you find the nearly 2 dozen comments interesting.

  • It’s bad enough the media chose not to initially cover the “Hunter” fiasco, but they still have essentially chosen to ignore it.
  • The fanatic liberals now claim there is an “assault on democracy” by the Republicans. How would one describe their conduct during the last 4 ½ years?
  • Pelosi and her fanatics impeached Trump based solely on an inert call to a fifth-world country. Will they also now attempt to impeach Biden for his thieving, lying, and traitor-type conduct?
  • Trump unquestionably made the best decisions on the pandemic given the knowledge and resources available from the CDC (ugh!) and WHO (ugh!). As a successful businessman, he foresaw what was going to happen and took appropriate action.
  • The liberal fanatics claimed it would take at least 5 years to develop a COVID-19 vaccine. Trump claimed we would have it before the end of year. Who was right?
  • There was no coordinated response from the CDC on nursing homes, the epicenters of death, until Trump took action.
  • The electorate obviously has little to no knowledge of social, economic, and scientific matters.
  • Since 1986, all elected officials have avoided taking action on the immigration crisis and border security. Trump is the only one who fought for the safety and security of the American people.
  • The Democratic Party’s agenda is perfectly clear: destroy Trump…not to serve the electorate.
  • Since Day 1, Trump has been betrayed by Washington insiders, the Democratic Party, and the Republican Party.
  • Liberals appear hell-bent on frustrating and embarrassing Trump, no matter what the cost to our nation. They claim he is a traitor. Based on his track record on peace and economics, I claim he should be President of the world.
  • Mueller will go down in history as a biased incompetent Special Council who, during his witch hunt, believed in two codes of justice while applying Gestapo tactics.
  • Mueller and his henchmen have for obvious reasons, refused to investigate and indict those, e.g., Comey, Clinton, etc., who have repeatedly committed criminal offenses.
  • I could be wrong but I believe that Pelosi is an evil person with mental problems.
  • Schumer strikes me as a conniving and untrustworthy individual.
  • I have three new acronyms: FTF – Fauci The Fraud, BCF – Biden Crime Family, and CTD – Cuomo The Dimwit.
  • I can’t think of anyone more stupid than Joe Biden, although Nancy Pelosi and Maxine Waters are close seconds.
  • The aggressive, belligerent behavior of many of the fanatical liberals regarding three recently Supreme Court appointees, Republican elected officials, Trump fans, Catholic school kids, etc., has been approved by both the corrupt fake-news media and Democrats.
  • The ten Democratic senators who questioned Kavanagh, accusing him of rape-related activities, should have been removed from office and jailed. Their concerted effort to destroy this man was unforgiveable.
  • Democracy cannot exist with a biased media. We are about to approach this state.
  • I’m accused of being a racist and un-American because I have no sympathy for those individuals planning to illegally overrun our borders. Is it old age, or am I missing something?
  • I still believe most Americans believe in supporting hard working individuals, not illegal immigrants.
  • I’m one to give credit where credit is due. Contrary to Republican claims, Cuomo definitely deserves an Emmy for absolving himself of the nursing home fiasco that resulted in the death of 40,000 seniors. Remember that it was Cuomo who issued a directive on March 25th that “no resident should be denied readmission to a nursing home if they test positive for the coronavirus.” What a slimy egomaniac.

Visit the author at:

www.theodorenewsletter.com

or

Basketball Coaching 101 (Facebook)

NEXT POSTINGS:

FEBRUARY 1:           On Technical Writing

MARCH 1:                 On Great Eats VI

APRIL 1:                     On the EWSD Budget Vote

MARCH 1:                 On Hofstra’s 2020-21 Basketball Season

———————————————————————————————————————

Here are this month’s three defensive suggestions from the upcoming second edition of my “BASKETBALL COACHING 101” book.

  1. Until one learns otherwise, one should assume the offensive player dribbles with the right hand.
  2. Until one learns otherwise, one should assume the offensive player shoots with his right hand.
  3. Until one learns otherwise, one should assume the offensive player drives to the right.

2 Comments | East Williston, Economics, Education, Politics | Permalink
Posted by The Theodore Newsletter

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